Founded in 2010 by Bom Kim, a former Harvard Business School student, Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) has rapidly become South Korea’s e-commerce leader, often earning the title of the “Amazon of South Korea.” Shares of CPNG have soared 46.5% over the past nine months and 42.1% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $23.

A question lingers in investors’ minds despite this impressive run: can Coupang sustain its upward momentum?

While Coupang’s financials have shown mixed signals recently, its second-quarter revenue came in at $7.32 billion, slightly missing the anticipated $7.39 billion. However, on the bright side, its adjusted earnings per share of $0.07 exceeded the expected break-even point, delivering a $0.07 surprise.

“This quarter, we continued to see deeper levels of engagement from our customers, powered by our relentless focus on providing even greater levels of selection, service, and savings for customers,” said CPNG’s CFO Gaurav Anand.

Let’s look at factors that could influence CPNG’s performance in the upcoming months.

Mixed Financials

In the second quarter of 2024, which ended on June 30, CPNG’s net revenue increased 25% year-over-year (or 18% excluding the impact of Farfetch) to $7.32 billion. The company’s Product Commerce Active Customers also increased by 12%, reaching 21.7 million, while revenue per active customer rose 5% on a constant currency basis.

Moreover, its gross profit grew 41% year-over-year to $2.14 billion, with a gross margin of 29.3%. CPNG’s adjusted EBITDA increased 10% from the year-ago value to $330 million.

However, the company reported an operating loss of $25 million, compared to an operating income of $148 million in the prior year’s quarter. In addition, its adjusted attributable net income decreased 14.5% year-over-year to $124 million, and adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.07, down 12.5% year-over-year. CPNG’s cash outflow from operating activities declined 33.7% year-over-year to $876 million. 

Mixed Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect CPNG’s revenue for the third quarter (ending September 2024) to increase 24.8% year-over-year to $7.72 billion. However, the consensus EPS estimate of $0.01 for the same period indicates a 77.7% year-over-year decline.

Similarly, for the fiscal year ending December 2024, CPNG’s revenue is expected to grow 24.4% from the prior year to $30.34 billion, while its EPS for the current year is forecasted to be negative at $0.01.

Stretched Valuation

In terms of forward EV/Sales, CPNG is trading at 1.30x, 7.6% higher than the industry average of 1.21x. Likewise, its forward Price/Sales of 1.36x is 56.8% above the industry average of 0.87x. Furthermore, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT multiple of 40.75 and 88.76 compares with the industry averages of 9.76 and 14.24, respectively.

Mixed Profitability

CPNG’s trailing-12-month ROCE and ROTA of 31.73% and 6.92% are 175.8% and 69.9% higher than their respective industry averages of 11.50% and 4.08%. Likewise, its trailing-12-month asset turnover ratio of 2.10x is 112.3% above the industry average of 0.99x.

However, the stock’s trailing-12-month EBIT and levered FCF margins of 1.14% and 3.95% are below their industry averages by 85.6% and 22.7%, respectively. In addition, the stock’s 2.95% trailing-12-month ROTC is 51.7% lower than the 6.11% industry average.

POWR Ratings Exhibit Mixed Prospects

CPNG’s stance is apparent in its POWR Ratings. The stock has an overall rating of C, which translates to Neutral in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by taking into account 118 different factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.

Our proprietary rating system also evaluates each stock based on eight distinct categories. CPNG has a B grade for Momentum is justified by its share price, which is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $21.64 and 200-day moving average of $19.31.

However, with a five-year beta of 1.10, the stock has earned a grade C for Stability. Also, the stock’s C grade for Sentiment is consistent with its mixed analysts’ estimates.

CPNG is ranked #42 out of 52 stocks in the B-rated Internet industry. Click here to access CPNG’s Growth, Value, and Quality ratings.

Bottom Line

CPNG remains dominant in South Korea’s e-commerce space, but its latest financials raise concerns. While the company exceeded earnings expectations, it missed revenue and customer growth estimates, causing its stock to drop 4.5% immediately following the results. Despite improvements in operational efficiency and adoption of AI-driven automation, the decline in bottom-line performance and mixed analyst forecasts highlight the company’s ongoing challenges.

Considering CPNG’s higher-than-industry valuation, enhanced volatility, and a slowing retail market in South Korea, it could be wise to wait for a better entry point in this stock now.

How Does Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) Stack Up Against Its Peers?

While CPNG has an overall grade of C, equating to a Neutral rating, you may also check out these A (Strong Buy) or B (Buy) rated stocks within the Internet industry: Meituan (MPNGY), Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL), and Yelp Inc. (YELP). To explore more Internet stocks, click here.

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CPNG shares were trading at $23.40 per share on Wednesday afternoon, up $0.40 (+1.74%). Year-to-date, CPNG has gained 44.53%, versus a 16.20% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Shweta's profound interest in financial research and quantitative analysis led her to pursue a career as an investment analyst. She uses her knowledge to help retail investors make educated investment decisions.

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