Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley caught some grief earlier this month for declaring the GOP primary a two-person race after the Iowa caucuses. Turns out, she was proven right after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis bowed out of the 2024 presidential race on Sunday.
The news caught some by surprise, but the evidence was hiding in plain sight. DeSantis had bounced back and forth between events in New Hampshire and South Carolina, hardly the sign of a candidate with confidence or a plan. His Sunday show appearances were canceled. Questions about his financial viability were swirling, a situation sure to be exacerbated by the single digit finish he was trending toward in the Granite State. DeSantis was at six percent in the Real Clear Politics average, far behind both Trump (47%) or Haley (33%).
After New Hampshire, the South Carolina primary was not until February 24 – an eternity for a campaign in its death rattle and whose political obituaries had been written in searing levels of detail.
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There are lessons coming out of the DeSantis failure. Here are four of them.
It doesn’t matter how well financed the outside efforts are. By law, super PACs are independent entities. They cannot compensate or make up for the deficiencies of a candidate or the people around them. Never Back Down, the DeSantis affiliated PAC, started the 2024 effort with $269 million dollars. Their candidate leaves the race with 9 delegates. That math isn’t pretty.
The Florida Republican was one of the few GOP bright spots in the 2022 midterm elections. And that led to all kinds of expectations about his White House prospects.
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No doubt, winning re-election in a landslide in Florida was an impressive accomplishment. So was attracting the support of voting blocs who have eluded Republicans in recent years, such as Latinos, who broke for DeSantis by 58%. With his COVID-19 policymaking looking better over time, DeSantis had a story to tell. His state’s population was growing by leaps and bounds.
Yet success at a state level does not always translate nationally. It didn’t help that from the jump, DeSantis took the brunt of the attacks from former President Donald Trump and his allies.
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In Iowa, DeSantis traveled to all 99 counties and lost by 30 points. New Hampshire’s population of 1.3 million people (the majority of whom get their news from one media market) means voters expect to kick the tires on their candidates in personal interactions. It was not the best fit for a candidate like DeSantis, who has never been the most natural campaigner and whose own state has 10 media markets and more than 20 million residents.
DeSantis offered himself as a younger version of Trump without all the messy baggage. Primary voters stuck with the original, especially as President Joe Biden’s numbers plummeted and anyone with a pulse appeared on a glide path for the White House.
At 45-years-old and with three years left as the governor of the nation’s third-largest state, it’s unlikely we’ve heard the last of Ron DeSantis. His state is thriving and has become the epicenter of the conservative ecosystem. Time will pass, and he will have a chance for another political act. Like others vanquished foes falling in line with the former president, DeSantis’ quick endorsement of Trump was intended to start the healing process.
With DeSantis back in Florida on the eve of the first in the nation primary, Haley gets a clean shot at the former president, something that never materialized for his 2016 challengers.
Eight years ago, there were eight serious candidates competing in New Hampshire. With his committed core of voters and high floor of support, Trump has always reaped the rewards of a fractured field.
Now there are just two. Trump remains the frontrunner, but as we’ve seen before, the unexpected can happen when the voters have their say.
