Lower-than-expected contract price and delayed market recovery to impact annual EBITDA guidance
ICL (NYSE: ICL) (TASE: ICL), a leading global specialty minerals company, today announced an update to its 2022 to 2024 framework agreement with its customers in China. The company has agreed to supply those customers with an aggregate amount of 800,000 metric tons of potash during 2023, with mutual options for an additional 350,000 tons. The agreed upon price is $307 per ton, which aligns with recent contract settlements.
Due to the lower-than-anticipated potash price, ICL expects to see a negative impact to its 2023 EBITDA guidance of approximately $400 million. In addition, a recovery in demand for flame retardants, which was expected in the second half of the year, has not yet begun to materialize. If a recovery is delayed until the end of 2023, it could result in a further reduction of approximately $200 million in EBITDA guidance for the year. The company reiterated it is on track with regard to its five-year plan and does not expect these developments to have a material impact on its execution.
ICL Group is a leading global specialty minerals company, which creates impactful solutions for humanity's sustainability challenges in the food, agriculture and industrial markets. ICL leverages its unique bromine, potash and phosphate resources, its global professional workforce, and its sustainability focused R&D and technological innovation capabilities, to drive the company's growth across its end markets. ICL shares are dual listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (NYSE and TASE: ICL). The company employs more than 12,500 people worldwide, and its 2022 revenues totaled approximately $10 billion.
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The company only provides guidance on a non-GAAP basis. The company does not provide a reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) to GAAP net income (loss), due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting, and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation, in particular, because special items such as restructuring, litigation, and other matters, used to calculate projected net income (loss) vary dramatically based on actual events, the company is not able to forecast on a GAAP basis with reasonable certainty all deductions needed in order to provide a GAAP calculation of projected net income (loss) at this time. The amount of these deductions may be material, and therefore could result in projected GAAP net income (loss) being materially less than projected adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP). The guidance speaks only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this news release or to reflect actual outcomes, unless required by law. Specialties focused businesses are represented by the Industrial Products, and Growing Solutions segments, and the specialties part of the Phosphate Solutions segment. We present EBITDA from the phosphate specialties part of the Phosphate Solutions segment as we believe this information is useful to investors in reflecting the specialty portion of our business.
The company discloses in this quarterly announcement non-IFRS financial measures titled adjusted operating income, adjusted net income attributable to the company’s shareholders, diluted adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA. The management uses adjusted operating income, adjusted net income attributable to the company’s shareholders, diluted adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period to period. The company calculates adjusted operating income by adjusting operating income to add certain items, as set forth in the reconciliation table under "adjustments to reported operating and net income (non-GAAP)", in the appendix below. Certain of these items may recur. The company calculates adjusted net income attributable to the company’s shareholders by adjusting net income attributable to the company’s shareholders to add certain items, as set forth in the reconciliation table under "adjustments to reported operating and net income (non-GAAP)", in the appendix below, excluding the total tax impact of such adjustments. The company calculates diluted adjusted earnings per share by dividing adjusted net income by the weighted-average number of diluted ordinary shares outstanding. The company calculates adjusted EBITDA as net income before financing expenses, net, taxes on income, share in earnings of equity-accounted investees, depreciation and amortization and adjust items presented in the reconciliation table under "consolidated adjusted EBITDA and diluted adjusted earnings per share for the periods of activity" in the appendix below, which were adjusted for in calculating the adjusted operating income. Commencing with the year 2022, the company’s adjusted EBITDA calculation is no longer adding back minority and equity income, net. While minority and equity income, net reflects the share of an equity investor in one of the company’s owned operations, since adjusted EBITDA measures the company’s performance as a whole, its operations and its ability to satisfy cash needs before profit is allocated to the equity investor, management believes that adjusted EBITDA before deduction of such item is more reflective.
You should not view adjusted operating income, adjusted net income attributable to the company’s shareholders, diluted adjusted earnings per share or adjusted EBITDA as a substitute for operating income or net income attributable to the company’s shareholders determined in accordance with IFRS, and you should note that the definitions of adjusted operating income, adjusted net income attributable to the company’s shareholders, diluted adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA may differ from those used by other companies. Additionally, other companies may use other measures to evaluate their performance, which may reduce the usefulness of ICL’s non-IFRS financial measures as tools for comparison. However, the company believes adjusted operating income, adjusted net income attributable to the company’s shareholders, diluted adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA provide useful information to both management and investors by excluding certain items management believes are not indicative of ongoing operations. Management uses these non-IFRS measures to evaluate the company's business strategies and management's performance. The company believes these non‑IFRS measures provide useful information to investors because they improve the comparability of financial results between periods and provide for greater transparency of key measures used to evaluate performance.
The company presents a discussion in the period-to-period comparisons of the primary drivers of changes in the results of operations. This discussion is based in part on management’s best estimates of the impact of the main trends on its businesses. The company has based the following discussion on its financial statements. You should read such discussion together with the financial statements.
Forward Looking Statements
This announcement contains statements that constitute forward‑looking statements, many of which can be identified by the use of forward‑looking words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “could,” “expect,” “should,” “plan,” “intend,” “estimate” and “potential,” among others.
Forward-looking statements appear in this press release and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the company’s intent, belief or current expectations. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to various factors, including, but not limited to: estimates, forecasts and statements as to management's expectations with respect to, among other things, business and financial prospects, financial multiples and accretion estimates, future trends, plans, strategies, positioning, objectives and expectations, general economic, market and business conditions, supply chain and logistics disruptions, energy storage and electric vehicle growth, the potential for new COVID-19 variants, global unrest and conflict, governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof. As a result of the foregoing, readers should not place undue reliance on the forward‐looking statements contained in this press release concerning the timing of the transaction, or other more specific risks and uncertainties facing ICL, such as those set forth in the “Risk Factors” section of its Annual Report on Form 20-F filed on February 23, 2022, as such risk factors may be updated from time to time in its Current Reports on Form 6-K and other filings ICL makes with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time.
Forward-looking statements refer only to the date they are made, and the company does not undertake any obligation to update them in light of new information or future developments or to publicly release any revisions to these statements in order to reflect later events or circumstances or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.