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PROXY COMMUNICATION STATEMENT:
Biogen Idec and its directors, executive officers and other members of its management and employees
may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from the stockholders of Biogen
Idec in connection with the Companys 2008 annual meeting of stockholders. Information concerning
the interests of participants in the solicitation of proxies will be included in any proxy
statement filed by Biogen Idec in connection with the Companys 2008 annual meeting of
stockholders. In addition, Biogen Idec files annual, quarterly and special reports with the
Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC). The proxy statements and other reports, when
available, can be obtained free of charge at the SECs web site at www.sec.gov or from Biogen Idec
at www.biogenidec.com. Biogen Idec stockholders are advised to read carefully any proxy statement
filed in connection with the Companys 2008 annual meeting of stockholders when it becomes
available before making any voting or investment decision. The Companys proxy statement will also
be available for free by writing to Biogen Idec Inc., 14 Cambridge Center, and Cambridge, MA 02142.
In addition, copies of the proxy materials may be requested from our proxy solicitor, Innisfree M&A
Incorporated, by toll-free telephone at (877) 750-5836 or by e-mail at info@innisfreema.com.
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Jim Mullen
Biogen Idec CEO
Paul Clancy
Biogen Idec CFO
PRESENTATION
John Newman Merrill Lynch
Biogen Idec is a leading biotech company with an impressive product profile including Rituxan
in oncology and RA and Avonex/Tysabri and Rituxan in multiple sclerosis. The company has also
recently added interesting molecules to its cardio-pulmonary franchise and here with us today to
tell us a little bit more about the company is Mr. Jim Mullen, the CEO of Biogen Idec.
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Thank you, John. So Ill try to run through the high level presentation relatively quickly and
then leave plenty of time for Q&A when were done. You guys have seen probablythis is the last
day of the conference so Im sure youve seen a lot of forward-looking statements. As always keep
track of the securities filings, the press releases, etcetera.
And given where we are in the proxy season and that there will be some shareholder items in the
proxy, this is the proxy solicitation statement. And you can pull this all off of our website if
you need to.
So this is what Id like to run through in the next few minutes, a little bit of backwards look of
the business review and a recap of the year and then start looking forward as to where the growth
is coming from in the future and then finish up with a couple of comments about 2008 guidance.
Four years ago Bill Rastetter and I consummated the merger between Biogen and Idec and at that
point in time we laid out a number of goals for the merged entity. One was, of course, to more
efficiently leverage the great immunology research we had in both companies to be a lot more
competitive on business development and also we laid out a couple of financial goals at that point
in time, which took us to the end of 2007.
And what we said was our target was to grow the top line at 15% annual compounded rate and the
bottom line at 20%. Yesterday we put out the earnings and the results are in so top line growth was
14.4% compounded over thoseover that period 04 to end of 07 and the bottom line was 22%.
And towards the latter part of the summer last year I started to lay out our goals going through
the next three-year period of time, 08, 09 and 10, and in our view we can continue that kind of
progression with the products that we have in our hands.
And then Ill just point you to the last box on the bottom, which I think become important and it
will be the subject of a lot more of this presentation, which is the pipeline. Weve spent a lot of
time over the last couple of years building out this pipeline. We now think its quite broad, quite
diverse and maturing fairly quickly and weve got 15-plus products in phase II and beyond.
This will just give you a quick snapshot over that same four year period of time, whats happened
with the stock, highest correlation is top-line growth rate, probably not a surprise. Weve only
been outperformed by Gilead and Celgene among our peer group, so we think thats been a reasonably
attractive return and we think we can continue that.
When I finished up in the summer we started to lay out sort of 2010 goals, so we started with this
15 and 20 concept, 15 on the top line, 20 on the bottom line, but then put a little bit more
granularity to that in these operating goals. And so the first one talks about Tysabri and
obviously Tysabri we view as a significant growth driver and we put a target of 100,000 patients
out there by year-end 2010. Im going to build you up to how we get to that 100,000 in a couple
more slides.
Furthermore, Avonex, which is a $1.8 billion brand, still continues to grow modestly but we think
we can maintain our sharepatient share in the market, the ABCRthe so-called ABCR market place.
Were also looking forward to some additional indications with Rituxan. Weve already seen some
data this year thats already out in the public. Well come back to that.
And importantly we now have about a third of our revenues coming from international business. We
continue to see that trend shifting more to the international business over that same three-year
period. We think were going to have more like 40% of revenues coming from the international
business.
And then you talk about the future on the bottom box, which is building out the pipeline. We should
have by that end of 2010 a couple new products or major indications launched, at least six programs
in late stage development. So this is assuming that were going to see industry standard kinds of
failure rates in our pipeline and of course we want to continue to execute on our business
development strategy, which has been a core part of the strategy for the past few years.
So on the right in that box is the very simple statement of how we think about the strategy for the
company. Were looking for significant products. Were looking at global specialty markets and one
of the hallmarks of our pipeline is for the most part weve got the worldwide rights to these
products and as Ill describe later, we already have the platform established in most of the
significant markets in the world.
So were looking for global markets, specialty markets where we can attack them with a specialty
sales force, high service, high knowledge, high education, and of course high unmet need, which can
be defined by any number of things-efficacy, safety, convenience, etcetera.
On the left hand side are really the operational elements to that, so developing and
commercializing the blockbuster brands, expanding geographic reach, advancing the pipeline,
executing on our business development plans, taking advantage of our platform, a world-class
biologics development and manufacturing and of course delivering on the financial performance at
the end of that. And thats pretty much how the rest of this is structured as walking through that.
This will give you a snapshot of the lastover this same period, 04, 05, 06 and 07, what the
growth has looked like on the Avonex business, which is the purple bar, the Rituxan business, which
the goldish bar and then Tysabri just coming up. You can see all those businesses have had healthy
growth. To remind you, the Rituxan end market sales are about $4.5 billion. What you see in the
gold bar is actually our profit share of that. If you took the Avonex business, think of that as
about a 65% operating margin product, if you want to just do an apples to apples.
And whats important about the Tysabri is while you see that bar is pretty small now, its growing
fairly rapidly. We expect that to be a big growth driver and we left the year at a half-billion
dollar run rate.
And this is how I like to describe the building blocks for growth. On Avonex we still have some
opportunity in front of us in the international market to continue to grow the brand and the
patients and the units. We launched only a year ago in Japan. Were just getting started in South
America. Weve filed in China, so weve got some interesting opportunities there to continue to
grow that brand and we also have in that top box some life cycle management programs to really
extend that brand in what we think will be patent protected ways.
Tysabri in the middle box, its all about blocking and tackling and gettingcontinuing the launch
and the launch progression, continue to drive depth and breadth of prescribing. We also have
continued geographic expansion so one of the things you see in the acceleration of the growth of
Tysabri is the impact of large markets that we rolled out in the second half of the year. A couple
weeks ago we announced the approval for Crohns disease here in the U.S. and so that will launch
shortly and were also initiating trials in a couple of oncology indications.
And then Rituxan on the far right is really a product that emulates a lot of the strategy from the
merger. The ability for products in immunologicwhen youre playing around with the immune system,
you really cross over in the oncology as well as the autoimmune diseases. And the second leg of
growth for Rituxan is certainly in the autoimmune indications.
A year ago or so we launched in rheumatoid arthritis in the TNF inadequate responder population. We
just announced that the DMARD inadequate responder trials which were successful so well file for
that. We just added to the label in the TNF failure area data on slowing the progression of joint
erosion.
So good progress there and theres a number of big indications in front of us, Lupus, CLL, MS, and
of course we have second and third generation molecules under development with our partners
Genentech and Roche.
So just to break down the Tysabri 100,000 patients for a moment, first Ill point you over to the
Avonex. The Avonex patient numbers are about 130,000 so you can sort of size up what does a 100
look like relative to the market leader there. The bottom part of that bar is the U.S. sales; the
top part is the ex-U.S. sales. Its about 55-45 and if you go all the way over to the right youre
going to see that we think that actually flips over for Tysabri, that were going to have more
patients outside the U.S. than inside the U.S. and thats driven both by the development of the
market places there as well as our starting point with our geographic footprint outside the U.S.
We left the year with 21,000 patients on product and we have seen in every market that weve been
in for a few months increasing depth and breadth of prescribing, so were seeing a gradual
acceleration of the accrual rates in every one of the markets were in and thats reflected if you
will in these sort of gently accelerating lines that you can see to take you from 21,000 to
100,000.
So the 100,000, if you just straight-lined out the current approval rates as we left the Q4 in MS,
youd end up in the mid-70s. We are expecting 10,000 to 15,000 or so in the Crohns disease and we
are expecting to see that continue a gradual acceleration as we drive depth and breadth.
And this is just some of the detailsdata around here. Ill just point out a couple of things on
here. Youve got the U.S. and international split, 12,800 in the U.S. and 7,500 outside the U.S.
But importantly down in that fourth bullet point, 95 out of the top 100 physicians are prescribing
so we feel like were getting most of the prescribers to at least start trying this product and we
know from the market research, the more patients come back to them that have been on this product,
the more likely they are to continue to prescribe and the more likely they are to think about this
product earlier in the evolution of somebody with MS.
Were not seeing any more cases PML since re-launch and importantly we had about 6,300 patients
that have now been on the product for a year. One of the things that of course people are looking
at does how is that safety profile unfolds over a couple year period of time.
And Ill point out the last bullet. Four out of five patients that are coming onto Tysabri are new
to our MS franchise. We have a number of products in MS, two in the market place, several more in
development. We think about this as a franchise; we think about this as patients being afflicted
with MS for 40 or 50 years and being on some kind of therapy for that period of time and for us to
build a suite of products that really are applicable for all their time in life as well as the life
cycle of that disease.
Heres a quick snapshot of Rituxan. You can see the marketed indication. Its non-Hodgkins
lymphoma. Theres also a fair bit of sales in CLL although thats technically off-label but thats
important when I come back to talk about the CLL trial later.
In RA weve got the TNF inadequate responder label. We just added the joint erosion data to that
label. We just announced the conclusionsuccessful conclusion of the DMARD failure trial. Were
looking forward to seeing the primary progressive trials in this half of the year as well as the
Lupus trials. You can see further down theres one that will finish in the first half of this year
and the Lupus Nephritis in 2009. CLL should also finish this year. Theres a separate trial that
Roche was running that they announced recently positive results on.
The only reason I pull CLL out is that its probably not a big new market driver but these other
three indications certainly will be.
And this just gives you a little bit more data on what that means and theyre all first half
readouts. In the RA, think about the TNF refractory group being a patient pool of about 300,000 and
as you move forward and get into the first line biologics, youre really looking at well over a
million patients in the pool, although arguably that is a more competitive segment.
Multiple sclerosis, you may know that there were some trials in relapsing/remitting MS. Those are
going to get restarted with ocrelizumab, which is a second generation product but the primary
progressive trials continue. With successful outcome there, that could be a very interesting new
indication. About 15% of MS patients have the primary progressive form. Thats about 75,000
patients or so that could be a target market but they have very, very few options, high unmet need.
And we think Lupus, on the bottom, could be really a blockbuster indication. Theres been not a lot
of success for new drugs in Lupus. The B cell pathway is certainly implicated there and were quite
excited to get to the results there and hopefully to the commercial opportunity.
This is where we are geographically represented. So we have direct businesses in North America, all
through Western Europe, part of Eastern Europe, Japan, Brazil, were going to expand Argentina.
Were direct in Australia and New Zealand. Were just getting started in our businesses in India
and China, so weve got a broad global footprint. Most of that infrastructure is already in our
base cost and almost all of those businesses, with the exception of the few that we just started up
over the last year, are profitable today.
So were in a great position to take a pipeline, which is in most cases a global pipeline, with
global rights and really leverage that value across the world. Simply put, when you have a
distribution partner in the market, you give up half of the value, half of the economics. When you
can go direct, as long as you think you can cover your infrastructure costs, the profitability is
much, much larger.
And heres just a quick snapshot of the pipeline. We can go into a lot more detail on specific
drugs but I just want to focus you on a couple of things. So weve got a fair depth of pipeline in
neurology, not only in MS but Parkinsons, Alzheimers disease, oncology, both hematologic tumors
as well as solid tumors. Weve got nine different programs ongoing there, a number in the
autoimmune disease.
Cardiology, we have a couple of very late stage programs so these are acute care cardiology, so
theyre hospital based products. And then with acquisition of Syntonix, which we were attracted to,
because of some of the technology we also picked up a couple of hemophilia programs, which are
exciting opportunities if the technology proves out, which would really allow us to expand the
prophylaxis use in the hemophilia setting.
All together thats probably about 30 different programs ongoing in the clinic or on the doorstep
of the clinic.
This is a little bit how we think about markets and products as we go through a portfolio,
segregating between on the lefton the vertical axis, general practitioners and specialty markets,
and on the bottom, on the X axis, low and high degrees of unmet need. The inside bubble is, if you
will, what that market size is today and the outer bubble is where we think that market is going to
grow to over the next four or five years.
So we think there are big opportunities in RA, still big opportunities left in MS. Hemophilia I
already mentioned. The one I want to pull out really is the Lupus, which as people presently look
at that market, they view it as a relatively smaller opportunity than I think its going to become.
I think with good efficacy that market could look a lot more like the MS market and the MS bubble
and in fact the blue bubble there that says 2001 in the MS market was our view of what it would
bein 2001 what the market would look like today.
So I think it just indicates where theres high unmet need and motivated patients, if you really
bring something that is a big step over the standard of care, the ability to get out to those
markets is pretty big. The number of patients afflicted with Lupus is actually quite a bit larger
than the number with MS.
This is the pipeline. Im not going to go through this in detail. I want to make only about two or
three points on this. First, you can see as you work from right to left on this, registration
and/or filing, these are products that are in registration, trialed or filed by indication. The
number of programs in phase II or proof of concept studies where you actually have enough data on
efficacy to make a call about moving the programs forward, and the phase I programs. So weve got a
lot of programs, fairly well balanced across; 15 programs in phase II and beyond.
The second point to make is weve been very active in business development. I would consider that
one of the success stories of the merger. Weve got a lot of great programs in that pipeline that
are externally sourced. Some of those, while they say theyre externally sourced, theyre wholly
owned assets now like the Factor IX, the Factor VIII and the HSP90s, for example, and some of them
are still partnered.
This is just a quick snapshot of the deals that have brought products over the past number of
years. We actually added another one in the fourth quarter thats not on this list, Neurimmune, but
you can see that weve been ticking off deals. These are deals for both phase II, phase III,
preclinical phase I compounds so were really looking at value and opportunity across. I think
weve been very efficient with the cash on that.
We paid relatively little up front with success. Well have more milestones on the back side of
this but those will be things that we will happily pay with success.
And this is that same chart I just showed you two back but with the yellow highlights of where the
data readouts are coming. So you see theres a lot of data here coming this year so all the yellows
are data readouts this year and a couple of them have already happened. I went through the Rituxan
ones already. Ill go throughI guess I wont go through because I dropped that slide out. Ill
just mentioncould I go back one? Yeah, thanks.
Go through a couple in that middle box. We really went through the Rituxan ones already.
Lymphotoxin Beta, a program thats an in-house program, we saw good phase IIa data out of that
program in rheumatoid arthritis late last year. We re-doubled our efforts there. Weve got programs
ongoing in both TNF refractory patients and DMARD refractory patients and we should see the
phaseend of phase II data this year.
The BIIB014 in Parkinsons, small molecule, Parkinsons drug, a2 antagonist, we should see the
phase II data this year. Daclizumab we already announced late last year. HSP90 program, this is a
very exciting area of science. Weve got the first oral HSP90 inhibitor in the clinic. Weve also
got some backup programs behind that but we should see phase II data, phase I/II in GI stromal
tumors later this year.
Volociximab, a program we have in partnership with PDL BioPharma, weve got several indications
ongoing; well see ovarian phase II later this year. So thats just a quick sampling of some of the
data, so a lot of data in the first and second half of the year.
And I want to finish this part of it by just emphasizing thewe do have a powerful discovery
engine as well. Weve tended to talk more about the external deals but I think its equally
important to think about some of the breakthrough programs weve brought forward internally. The
TWEAK program, which was really a new pathway of inflammation discovered at Biogen; weve got
programs ongoing there.
The LINGO program, very exciting, so this isthis now sort of brings the possibility to
re-myelinate damaged nerves and re-promote growth, so this is the kind of thing you could think
about for reversing the disease progress around demyelinating disease such as MS and some
peripheral neuropathies and LT-Beta, which was another program discovered internally.
And we continue with those kinds of programs, so weve got a great discovery engine behind us.
So let me justthat was a quick run-through and I want to get to the Q&A and so Im going to
finish up with the 2008 guidance. The 2008 guidance is in line with this 15% and 20% growth top
line, bottom line that weve talked about before. We see in 2008 that we should be in the mid- to
high-teens, maybe to 20 with the growth. As we see the traction on Tysabri, well have a better
idea of that and as we see some of the trial results on Rituxan, thatll determine it.
Were going to get increasing leverage in the operating margins. If you went back over the past
couple of years, we were investing behind Tysabri and building out that infrastructure. Q4 Tysabri
turned profitable so you do actually see that impact pull right through the P&L.
Were guiding people, this operating expense number of 1.9 to 2 because if you start to do this as
a percentage of revenue, lots of people have different percentages of revenue out there but I hate
to say wed be able to give you a better way to build models.
Tax rate will be relatively unchanged. GAAP EPS goes up by the same increment but theres nothing
new really from the GAAP to the non-GAAP. If you go back and you look at the merger related
accounting charges, those will recur again this year and that pretty much describes the difference
between GAAP and non-GAAP.
Capital expenditures will be down this year and for the next few years as we finish off the last
significant manufacturing expansion.
So with that, I think we should go to Q&A. Ill come back over here.
Q & A
Unidentified Participant
Great, thanks Jim. Questions from the audience? Okay, let me start out with one. Given the
recent New England Journal of Medicine publication regarding two cases of melanoma weve all
seen this in the news in Tysabri patients, do you have any concerns going forward about cancer
in general for the drug or is this something that is sort of a past event?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
No, we dont really haveI mean those arethose cases we run them toI wouldnt say so. We
had a very big clinical trial database; we had over 3,000 patients in the clinical trial database
for a couple of years and did not see a difference between the cancers in the placebo and the
treatment arms so at this point we dont have a significant concern about that.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, great. Question?
Unidentified Audience Member
I have a couple of questions please on ADENTRI. In your fourth quarter call you made reference
to it starting registrational trials. What do you mean by that? Is that phase IIb or outcomes and
what patient population are you thinking of for that?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Right. Its actually phase III trials so we have really two programs there. Oneits the same
molecule delivered orally, delivered IV. The initial will bewere really looking at diuresis as
the initial piece and then itll be outcomes data on CHF patients longer term, so thatll be the
standardhospitalization days, death, etcetera.
Unidentified Audience Member
So thats both the IV and the oral youre taking into phase III or?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Yeah, the first one is just the IV though. So the oral will be somewhat behind it but weve
taken the oralthe orals been in the clinic so itswerewe do have the oral formulation. We
know how that works but the IV is the most interesting indication to get started with and well
follow just fairly quickly with the oral after that.
Unidentified Audience Member
And do you have a filing vision on the IV and the oral of what are your expectations for
thewhat time line?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Do you have the time line on that?
Unidentified Participant
We generally kind of want to get through the phase III trials first before we project out
filing times. But its going toa couple years out.
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Yeah, the cardiovascular trials tend to be lots of patients but of course theyre a little bit
shorter duration, but weve got to really track out on the CHF patient outcomes so to a certain
degree youve got to run the outcomes out far enough to get separation.
Unidentified Audience Member
And just my final question is with this mechanism is there some sort of seizure concern or do
you see that in your compound?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Interesting question because it hasnt come up for a couple of years but that was certainly
concerns as you go back a couple of years about that general class of products, but we dont have
any big signals there.
Unidentified Participant
Question in the back?
Unidentified Audience Member
Could you talk a little bit about how you see the competitive situation in the MS space as
some other companies bring new products to market, Novartis or Campath from Genzyme?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Yeah, in our forecasts we have assumed that both the Novartis compound, FTY720 and Campath
would come to the market. Our view on Campath to go backwards is high efficacy but some significant
safety issues around that so thats probably going to be a little bit more of a niche application.
And FTY720, it appears to have efficacy thats in the range, maybe a little bit above the
interferons. Well be interested to see what that looks like as the trials finish up. But also how
the side effect profile unfolds for that because theres some difficulties.
But having said all that, we believe theyre coming to the market place and thats what we put into
our competitive forecasts, if you will, and how were also thinking about bringing our other
products into the market place.
Unidentified Participant
Other questions from the audience?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Theres one right here.
Unidentified Participant
In the front.
Unidentified Audience Member
What sort of visibility do you have for any sort of Avonex, bio-similar, you might see
internationally?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
What visibility do we have? We have a lot of visibility because you already see bio-similars
in some of the developing countries, so there are some in India. Youll find them in Latin and
South America, so theres some small ones out there that are not having a big impact on the market.
In a lot of cases theres some significant quality concerns and Im not just talking about our
marketing, Im just saying that people have been trying them and not all that happy with them.
In Europe youve got the bioits not really a bio-similar because they went through the full
clinical trials, but that will come out with sort of the Rebif low-dose label and theyre going to
have to do some more development work because the market is, at least for that delivery, is high
dose.
Unidentified Audience Member
Are you aware of anybody working on an Avonex-type product? And is there any intellectual
property that would prevent them from doing so, in Europe?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
In Europe, yes, theres intellectual property that protects fairly specifically around Avonex,
beta-interferon 1a and some of the specific glycosylation patterns and things like that, so that IP
goes out through 20
Unidentified Participant
11; 13 in the U.S.
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
In the U.S. but theres some narrower IPs in Europe that goes out into the next decade. I
dont12, 13 is my recollection but we should confirm that back to you.
Unidentified Participant
Other questions? Jim, on your fourth quarter call you talked a little bit about Avonex sales
in 2007. It looks like they were a little bit lumpy, especially in Europe. Can you talk about
specifically in the EU in the fourth quarter what component of the growth came from things like
inventory, price increases, demand and the FX effect?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Yeah, so Im actually going to take you up and then take you down. So in the U.S. we have
great visibility in the inventory down to kind of the one or two-day level so that usually we can
predict.
In Europe its a little bit different market by market. Theres also a fair bit of, in the
international market, the tender offer business so, and Im not talking about in Western Europe but
Im talking about some in Eastern Europe, you get into the Middle East, Africa, etcetera, theres
more tender offer business there, and so those tend to go out in lumps.
But by and large what it was was some improved mix and someand a little bit of reduction of some
parallel importing across borders in Europe, which of course it always flows downhill on price when
youve got the parallel importing. So its a bit of a mix issue.
I dontwe dont think its an inventory issue in the channel and then youve got some tender
offer things that go in a lump. They tend to gothey just go in lumps.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Would you expect that tothese trends to remain stable into 2008 in terms of what we
might see?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Well we think the international business can continue to grow on a unit basis and on a dollar
basis. In the U.S. the units will probably be fairly flat and maybe a little bit of a decline. You
will have some natural wrap-around on the average price, which will be a little higher in 2008 than
it was in 2007 in the U.S.
Unidentified Participant
Okay.
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Okay?
Unidentified Participant
Sure. Thank you.
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Hes right in the light.
Unidentified Audience Member
Ill give it another shot if nobody elsein terms of PML, one thing thats causing anxiety
for investors right as we wake up one morning and there is another PML case in Tysabri and its an
exciting morning and I just wonder how you sort of are planning around how you respond to that
news, how that process will kind of unfold, general thoughts on that?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Yeah, well the first thing is PML and the whole risk management program in the U.S. is set up
to detect PMLa PML event very early on and weve said since we re-launched, youve got to assume
the PML is associated at some level with the product, so that day probably does happen.
But if you actually look at the materials that go in front of physicians, the healthcare providers
and the patients, they are really bombarded with the information and the warnings around PML so I
think the physician community is in a good position to actually absorb the information and not
overreact to it. Assuming were seeing an event here, an event there, and the event rate is not at
or above what the label rate is, which is 1 in a 1,000, just to remind everybody.
So from a market point of view, our expectation is thats a bump in the road. We can move through
that assuming theres not a cluster in some very short period of time that really unnerves people.
From an investor point of view, you guys tell me how youre going to react to it. My guess is the
investor reaction will be more severe in the short term and then well have to sort of rebuild the
momentum on that as they see how the market place, the physicians actually respond to that, looking
at scrip rates over another quarter or something like that.
Unidentified Audience Member
(Inaudible)
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Its (inaudible) is one of the thousands of viable and exciting products because you can
already see where we are with the sales level and its turning profitable. And theresif you go
back to the ABCR treatments and get beyond the averages and you look down at the individual level,
so with the ABCRs maybe a third of the patients or so really have kind of remission, right? But
that leaves the other two-thirds that really have to make some choices.
So I think it is a very viable product and in fact where most of the scrips are coming from now are
the people who have fallen out of all these other things and really dont have other options. So
one in a thousand, hopefully it wont be as high as that but I think its a viable product at that
kind of a rate.
Unidentified Participant
Theres a question right up here.
Unidentified Audience Member
Just to follow up on that, I think at one point there was a hope or a belief that patients who
were receiving just monotherapy without any other immunosuppressants or immune modulating drugs
wouldnt have thismay not get this at all or may have a lower rate. Do you stillare you still
going along that line of thinking?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Well that wasyou know when we had the events, what we did is we assembled teams of experts
around PML around the world and all the MS experts and the regulatory experts for that matter, and
the consensus at that time was probably a dual administration of an immunosuppressant contributed
to this issue and thats why thats contra-indicated now.
Now as time unfolds here well have to see. I mean if the rate really is significantly different,
and keeping in mind two cases, theres a huge error band around what the real statistical relevance
is two divided by that denominator is anyway. But I think thats certainly currently the belief.
That looks like thats playing out at least thus far that you just dont want to go after broadly
immunosuppressed patients.
Now were also working on ways to understand PML better and the underlying pathology and is there
anything you can do to address it so I think as time goes on, hopefully we get better and better
information there so people would know what should I look for and what should I do if I see it.
Unidentified Participant
Questions from the audience?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Maybe we lost them.
Unidentified Participant
Ive got a couple more. Given your projection for 100,000 patients on Tysabri by 2010, number
one, would you anticipate significant frontline use within that estimate? And number two, if so,
when might that occur? And then finally how does that affect Avonex?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
So the first is Iin that time frame I wouldnt anticipate that theres a lot of frontline
use. I think were just going to gradually see this being used earlier and earlier. I think as you
get passed the two year mark where youve got thousands of patients that have been exposed to the
product for several years, the confidence of the physicians around the overthe longer terms
safety profile is going to be quite different than it is today. Thatthen well bring the
question, when a patient presents itself for the very first time, should I be thinking about going
on the strongest therapy at the beginning or should I wait for later. In other words, should I
initiate people on Tysabri. I think that comes out in the latter part of this time frame.
What does that mean around Avonex? It will erode Avonex. We get a lot of the new scrips, but it
will also erode all the other products. So I think this dynamic where four out of the five patients
are new to our therapy, new to our franchise, maybe that changes a little bit but were not going
to be just swapping one for one, thats for sure.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Other questions? Got a little bit of time left, just a general question. This is more
from a broader company perspective. Can you describe how Biogens core assets and growth potential
offset the Tysabri risks from an M&A perspective?
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
How the growthwell I think youve got now a number of core products and youre going to see
a lot of cards turn over in the pipeline this year. We also have a pretty lean infrastructure on
the SG&A side. Weve got a lot of course invested on the R&D side, so I think we have the ability
to react to events that say Tysabri is not going to be as big as we hoped for in real time without
getting into financial difficulties.
But the core assets are the other products, so there isto the same degree that there is a
cannibalization of Avonex, a problem with Tysabri does get offset a bit by Avonex, but also makes
the attractiveness of some of our other MS products, which weve got more than anybody, higher.
So I think weve got some plays in that pipeline that offset Tysabri in the short term and I think
over the next couple of months, six months, eight months, youre going to see a lot of data around
a lot of programs in this pipeline that youre going to be able to then start to calibrate well
whats the competitive position of those kinds of programs? Whats the likelihood that theyll
succeed and what kind of value can they drive? And thatll give investors I think a lot more
visibility about what does 2010 and 11, 12 begin to look like.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, great. I think were out of time. Thanks everybody.
Jim Mullen - Biogen Idec CEO
Thanks.