Barington Capital Group, L.P.
888 Seventh Avenue
New York, NY 10019
Gentlemen:
The following report is in response to your request for a marketing opinion regarding whether Chico’s FAS Inc. (FAS), through its three brands (Chico’s, White House Black Market, and Soma) competes with Saks Fifth Avenue (SFA) and/or Lord & Taylor (LT) and includes: (1) an overview of the aspects of my background most relevant to this opinion, (2) the definition of a “competitor,” (3) rationale for why I believe that FAS, through their three brands, competes with both SFA and LT, (4) conclusion, and (5) references.
1. Overview of Background
I am currently an Assistant Professor of Business at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. My academic research centers on understanding marketing and marketers at the upper echelons of the firm (i.e., the intersection of marketing and management). I also serve on the Marketing Advisory Board of Harte-Hanks, a global marketing services firm.
Prior to becoming a professor, I spent nearly 20 years in executive positions within the retailing and consumer packaged goods industries, having worked both in the U.S. and Eastern Europe. Most of my career was spent in general management and strategy roles at Procter and Gamble and Aurora Foods; more recently I served as the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) of David’s Bridal, the country’s leading bridal apparel retailer, the CMO of Beazer Homes, a leading national homebuilder, and as an officer at PETsMART, the country’s largest pet specialty retailer.
Additionally, I am a Forbes contributor in their CMO Network (published 130 articles), write for CMO.com (“CMO Matters”) and have published in The Conference Board Directors’ Notes, CEO Magazine’s Briefing Newsletter, The Washington Post, IBM’s A Smarter Planet, HBR.org, Ad Age, the CMO Council’s print publication, PeerSphere, The Journal of Retailing, Business Horizons, The Marketing Science Institute, and the Academy of Management Journal. I have been interviewed, cited or quoted extensively across a variety of media outlets including: POTUS (XM/Sirius), Wall Street Journal, Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation, Huffington Post, Yahoo, The Conference Board, Gartner, Poets and Quants, Ad Age, and Yahoo! Finance.
Lastly, I attended the U.S. Air Force Academy, received a B.A. in Psychology and Business Administration from Eureka College, an MBA from the University of Arizona, and an M.S. in Marketing and PhD from Indiana University.
2. The Definition of a Competitor
The question (i.e., are SFA and/or LT competitors of FAS’s brands) requires a definition for the word “competitor”. From an academic standpoint, there are two key attributes that help determine if companies are competitors, including: (1) whether they are similar in form (i.e., similarity in attributes), and (2) whether they require similar resources. One method of comparing firms includes having key stakeholders develop cognitive taxonomies (i.e., essentially grouping brands into similar categories) that helps identify the similarities and differences among brands (see Porac and Thomas 1990 for a foundational article on defining “competitors”). For example, if we showed the following brands to key stakeholders (i.e., consumers, analysts, shareholders, business leaders, etc.), how might they group them—in other words, what cognitive structures exist that lead to the identification of like brands being assigned to the same category: Procter and Gamble, 7-11, Shell, and General Mills. One such grouping might be: Manufacturers (P&G, General Mills), Gas and Convenience Stores (7-11, Shell).
Another way to understand the term “competitor” is to look at the lay definition: “one selling or buying goods or services in the same market as another” (see Webster’s Dictionary).
A critical part of identifying which brands are within a competitive set is to identify the boundary of a market or category within which like brands compete. And this is a key challenge in defining who is (and isn’t) a competitor. Defining the boundary of a “market” is an imprecise process and is often challenging for firms. If a marketer defines the market too broadly or too narrowly, it can have negative consequences for firm-level strategy which can then impact firm performance. For example, if Southwest defines their market as transportation, then they need to determine how to compete with taxis, trains, metro systems, etc. which could lead to negative results as they enter markets in which they have little competency. Conversely, if Crest defines their market too narrowly, as tooth decay prevention (as they did up until the 1990s), they will fail to understand and solve key consumer problems as needs shift. In this latter case, Crest had multi-decade, market share leadership as they focused on serving a market concerned with tooth decay. However, they lost market share leadership as Colgate introduced Colgate Total—meeting the needs of a market that wanted oral health and beauty (i.e., white teeth)—a market beyond the too narrow definition Crest was designing new products against. In sum, the first challenge in defining a competitive set is to ensure that the definition is neither too broad nor too narrow.
The second, and even more critical element in defining the market is the source (i.e., key stakeholder) from which the competitive set it is determined. In the Introduction to Marketing class I taught to undergraduate students, I would distinguish between a strategic groups analysis and a customer choice analysis in determining a marketplace and ultimately, competitive set (see Strategic Group 1986). Essentially, the strategic groups method is based on how the firm defines the competitive set while the customer choice method is based on how the consumer defines the competitive set. It is important to ensure that the definition of the competitive set is not just from the point of the view of the firm, but also from the point of view of key stakeholders, including consumers.
In the context of whether SFA and LT are competitors of FAS’s brands, if one were to define any of FAS’s three brands as competing in any of the following markets, SFA and LT would be considered competitors: (1) retailing, (2) fashion apparel, (3) bricks and mortar (or online / catalogue) fashion apparel, (4) women’s fashion apparel, (5) mid-to-high end women’s fashion apparel operating in the United States. I provide evidence below, from multiple different perspectives, that supports the opinion that SFA and LT are competing with FAS’s brands.
3. Rationale
There are four evidence-based reasons why I believe that SFA/LT are competitors of FAS’s brands: (1) evidence from an assessment of segmentation and product characteristics, (2) evidence of geographical overlap and property management company categorization (i.e., customer choice), (3) evidence from FAS’s filings (i.e., strategic groups), and (4) evidence from consumers (i.e., customer choice). I elaborate on each below.
Evidence from Assessment of Segmentation and Product Characteristics
One way to determine the degree of overlap between companies (and therefore level of competition) is to evaluate the similarities/differences across segmentation and product characteristics. Because it is inefficient to target an entire marketplace, marketers divide (i.e., “segment”) broad markets into submarkets. This enables a marketer to evaluate each of the submarkets and determine which submarket(s) to focus efforts on. There are several characteristics upon which a marketer can segment a marketplace including, but not limited to: psychographics, demographics (e.g., income, gender, age, etc.), usage, needs and geography.
An additional method used to compare brands is to evaluate the degree to which their product/service offerings are similar (Porac and Thomas 1990). For example, by looking at different product attributes between the Mercedes, BMW, Acura, and Honda SUVs you can see that the Mercedes, BMW, and Acura all have some shared attributes (with Mercedes and BMW being more direct competitors), while the Honda is more differentiated.
The table below helps to provide insight on the degree to which SFA and/or LT are competitors of FAS (based on similarities in their segmentation and product characteristics). Information for the table below came from Form 10-K/Annual Reports, calls to stores, brand websites, and other SEC filings.
Segmentation and Product Characteristics Comparison
Segmentation and Product Characteristics
|
White House Black Market
|
Soma
|
Chico’s
|
SFA
|
LT
|
Target / Shoppers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Age
|
35+
|
35+
|
45+
|
45+ (CMO.com 2013)
|
35-55 (CBS 2010)
|
Gender
|
Women
|
Women
|
Women
|
Same (CMO.com 2013)
|
Same (CBS 2010)
|
Income
|
Moderate to High Income
|
Moderate to High Income
|
Moderate to High Income
|
“Fairly affluent” (CMO.com 2013)
|
Moderate to High Income
|
Psychographics
|
Stylish
|
Beautiful, Sophisticated, and Sensual
|
Individual expression
|
Stylish-sense of self (CMO.com 2013)
|
Affordable Chic (CBS 2010)
|
Geography—Operate in North America
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Channels:
|
|
|
|
|
|
E-com
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Stores
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Direct (Mail/Phone/Catalogue/Etc.)
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Number of Stores
|
434
|
260
|
600+
|
39
|
50
|
Outlets / Number
|
72
|
15
|
100+
|
77
|
No
|
Female Apparel
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Assortment beyond Women
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Female Apparel Pricing-Maximum Pricing
|
Roughly $275
|
Roughly $130
|
Roughly $250
|
Thousands
|
Over a thousand
|
Service Level
|
High
|
High
|
High
|
Same (CMO.com 2013)
|
Same
|
Loyalty Program
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes (CMO.com 2013)
|
No
|
Personal Shoppers
|
Yes*
(called Style Experts)
|
Kind of (Expert Fit Stylist)
|
Yes*
(called Style Experts)
|
Yes (called Personal Stylist)
|
Yes (called Personal Shopping Consultants)
|
Green=similar/overlapping to at least one FAS brand Red=different from all FAS brands
* Based on phone calls to stores; White House Black Market and Chico’s do not have as organized of a personal shopping system as SFA/LT; however, all three FAS brands said that customers could set up an appointment and they would assign an expert/stylist to assist the consumer with the shopping process.
While the table above does not include all possible characteristics, it identifies a number of important areas where the brands have similar and/or overlapping segmentation and product characteristics. Key similarities across the different brands exist in the definition of the target customer and the channels/geography in which they compete—they are all retailers targeting middle aged to older, more affluent women primarily in the U.S. through e-com, store, catalogue, and direct mail channels. This is especially notable since there is a dearth of apparel retailers targeting middle aged/older women, particularly when compared to the number of retailers targeting younger women (and men). Further, the table also shows areas of overlap. For example, while SFA/LT carry products in more product categories with a wider price range than Chico’s, all three overlap by selling women’s apparel in the <$250 range. The table also indicates key differences—for example, SFA/LT carry products in categories that White House Black Market, Soma, and Chico’s don’t.
Importantly, it is not necessary for brands to be identical on all characteristics to compete. In fact, it would be unusual for two brands to be identical because a primary marketing goal is to create differentiation.
Finally, data that would help provide greater insight would include: switching data, share of requirements data and online traffic patterns. Without such data, given the degree of similarity/overlap on key segmentation and product characteristics, it is reasonable to believe that the three would be classified within a competitive set—fashion apparel retailers who target middle aged+ women with middle to higher incomes and who sell via physical stores, e-com, catalogue and direct mail channels primarily within the U.S. Below is further evidence supporting this opinion.
Evidence from Geographical Overlap and Shopping Center Directories
Although there are more physical store locations for the FAS brands, there is significant overlap in terms of the geographies served by FAS and SFA/LT. For example, there is an SFA store within 1.1 mile of a Chico’s store in the Tysons Corner area (Mclean, VA). As another example, White House Black Market, Chico’s Outlet, and Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th all have stores in the Pittsburgh PA Tanger Outlets, with two located across the street from one another.
Not only are some FAS brands and SFA/LT co-located in the same shopping centers, there is evidence that some property owners consider the brands competitors as they designate them as retailers within the same category. For example, in the Tanger Outlet online directory, Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th, Chico’s Outlet, and White House Black Market are all located under the “Apparel” category. Additionally, both Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th and Chico’s Outlet have stores in the Outlets at Bergen Town Center. Within the Mall Directory (see the Outlets at Bergen Town Center website), the category under which both Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th and Chico’s Outlet are located is: “Apparel-Women’s”. Interestingly, the directory includes 18 different categories, including “department stores” and “specialty stores”. Neither Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th nor Chico’s Outlet are listed under these categories; instead, they are both listed under the “Apparel-Women’s” categories. This is further evidence that at least some experts within the industry categorize FAS and Hudson Bay brands as competitors.
Evidence from FAS and Hudson’s Bay
In FAS’s Form 10-K filings from 2000 to 2009, FAS specifically defines SFA as a direct competitor. For example, on page 8 of FAS’s 2009 Form 10-K, FAS states:
“The women’s retail apparel business is highly competitive and has become even more so in the past several years. The retailers that are believed to most directly compete with the Chico’s brand are the mid-to-high end department stores including Nordstrom’s, Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s and Saks Fifth Avenue, specialty stores including Gap, Talbots, J.Jill, Ann Taylor, Ann Taylor Loft, Christopher & Banks, and Coldwater Creek, direct-to-consumer retailers such as Lands’ End and L.L. Bean, as well as local or regional boutique retailers. The retailers that are believed to most directly compete with the WH|BM brand are the same mid-to-high end department stores named above ….Although management believes there is currently limited direct competition for Soma merchandise largely because of the distinctive nature of the brand’s merchandise designed with the targeted customer age 35 and over in mind, the retailers that are believed to most directly compete with Soma stores are the same mid-to-high end department stores…”
In the Form 10-K, FAS’s competitive set is broadly defined as department stores, specialty stores, direct-to-consumer retailers, and local/regional boutique retailers who are in the “mid-to-high end” space. Because the description uses “such as” and “including” when providing specific competitive brands, the list is not meant to be inclusive. While the Form 10-K definitively lists SFA as a direct competitor, it would be reasonable to also include LT in this set because it is considered a mid-to-high end apparel department store. While FAS ended the practice of specifically listing its competitors in its Form 10-K filings after 2009, Chico’s introduction of their upscale “Black Label” (Chico’s Facebook Page 2011) line in 2011 and the growth in the outlet business would only increase the degree to which FAS competes with both SFA and LT.
In Hudson’s Bay Company Annual Report (2014, p. 21), they define their competitors as including: “conventional and specialty department stores, other specialty stores…” and FAS’s annual Form 10-K filings, while no longer listing specific competitors, currently state that they “compete with local, national, and international department stores…offering similar categories of merchandise.” In combination, it is clear that SFA/LT believe that they compete with specialty stores (of which FAS is a part) and FAS believes its three brands compete with department stores (a category to which SFA/LT belong).
Further, according to a presentation which appears to be from Laurie Van Brunt, President-Soma Intimates (found through a Google search), she defines the target as women who are “35+ years of age,” who are “current department store intimates shoppers” who “like personalized boutique service,” and a “sophisticated, edited fashion assortment” (see Laurie Van Brunt). Again, this articulated definition of the target consumer is similar to that of both SFA and LT.
Evidence from Consumers
The Chico’s brand currently defines their target as “women 45 and older with a moderate to high income level,” (see FAS Annual Report, 2016: p. 1). Given this target definition, below are
two example results (from a Google search) that indicate evidence of consumers (in this case bloggers) identifying SFA and/or LT to be competitors of Chico’s brand.
Google Search Term
|
Search Solution / Link
|
Link to Search Solution
|
Competitive Set Identified by Blogger
|
“Best clothing stores for women over 45”
|
“Women over 40: Best Places to Shop for Clothes-The Budget Fashionista”
|
http://www.thebudgetfashionista.com/archive/clothing-stores-women-over-40/
|
Includes Chico’s, SFA, and LT (and 14 others)
|
“Best clothing stores for women over 45”
|
“Fashion over 50: Where to Shop”
|
http://www.thebudgetbabe.com/archives/108-Fashion-Over-50-Where-to-Shop.html
|
Includes Chico’s and LT (and 12 others)
|
Further, the table below shows apparel sales (dollar share) for women by age group (Fortune 2015)—essentially representing that no one retail type owns the female 35/45+ group. Within the female, 45+ age group, only 30% of total U.S. Apparel Sales (dollar share) are coming from the “specialty store” category, with the second largest channel being “department stores” helping explain why Hudson’s Bay considers specialty stores competitors and why FAS defines department stores as competitors. The data isn’t further broken down by income level, which would help provide a more precise understanding of FAS’s/SFA’s/LT’s target. However, the article (Fortune 2015) indicates that the “older the female shopper, the more likely she is to shop at these (department) stores” indicating that FAS’s target (women 35/45+) are most likely to also shop in department stores, again supporting FAS’s contention that many department stores are competitors.
4. Conclusion
Based on the evidence cited above and my experience and expertise in marketing, it is my belief that both SFA and LT are competitors of FAS.
5. Specific References:
|
·
|
CBS News (2010): http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-lord-taylor-must-do-to-stay-relevant/
|
|
·
|
Chico’s FAS, Inc. SEC Filings: http://chicosfas.com/investor-relations/sec-filings/default.aspx
|
|
·
|
Chico’s Facebook Page (2011): Posting of the Introduction of the Black Label Brand: https://www.facebook.com/LoveChicos/posts/242813149109801
|
|
·
|
CMO.com (2013): http://www.cmo.com/interviews/articles/2013/5/7/ cmo_com_interview_denise_incandela.html
|
|
·
|
Fortune 2015: http://fortune.com/2015/05/26/women-clothing-purchases-ann-taylor/
|
|
·
|
Hudson’s Bay Company Annual Report (2014): http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-1ETYKL/0x0x829940/51D95D62-7EB0-4E83-9753-0AE3C4FF51E2/SEDARHBCAnnualReport.pdf
|
|
·
|
Laurie Van Brunt (estimated 2012): Soma Intimates Presentation
|
|
·
|
Moore, Marian, and Kimberly A. Whitler (2016), “Market Definition, Segmentation, and Targeting: Three (of Four) Steps in Developing Marketing Strategy,” UVA-M-0895.
|
|
·
|
Porac, Joseph F., and Howard Thomas (1990), “Taxonomic Mental Models in Competitor Definition,” Academy of Management Review, 15 (2) 224-240.
|
|
·
|
Strategic Groups (1986): http://www.wiggo.com/mgmt8510/Readings/Readings6/mcgee1986smj.pdf
|
|
·
|
Tanger Outlets Pittsburgh, PA: http://www.tangeroutlet.com/pittsburgh
|
|
·
|
The Outlets at Bergen Town Center Directory: http://www.bergentowncenter.com/mobile/storedetails_mob.aspx?storeid=3373
|